ast month at the sold-out Mobile Imaging Summit executive conference, 140 invited senior executives from more than 10 countries in North America, Europe and Asia peered into their crystal ball to discuss and define the future of the camera-phone.
“The first evolutionary path was defined as ”The Ubiquitous Camera.“ When a camera is embedded in most people's cell phone, they will in effect have it with them at all times, unlike traditional cameras (film or digital), which are only taken off the shelf in preparation for a picture-taking occasion (a vacation, a child's birthday, or some other special event). Having evaluated the performance of the one-megapixel camera-phones provided at the event by Nokia, and considering the recent introduction in Asia of three- and five-megapixel units, the majority of Summit attendees -- 65% -- declared the Ubiquitous Camera to be real today, an opinion shared broadly across all three industries represented. However, considering the weaknesses of today's camera-phones compared to ”pure“ cameras (including the absence of lens cover, the limitations of current optical zoom lenses and flash components on phones, and the difficulty in many cases of transferring images to a personal computer) significant minorities -- 16 and 19 percent, respectively -- opted for the more conservative one-year and three-year timeframes.
Overall sentiment was somewhat less bullish with respect to ”The Wireless Camera,“ a device that offloads the photos it takes directly to a storage location or recipient, effectively eliminating (or at least reducing) the need for storage cards or other portable media. While only a very small minority -- two percent -- deemed this unlikely to ever materialize, most attendees somewhat cautiously forecast the capability for either one year (33%) or three years (39%) down the road. However, a significant minority of 26% declared it ”here today,“ reflecting a difference of perception between the telecomm attendees, among which 56% of respondents expressed that opinion, and the photo-imaging attendees, 75% of whom were in the one- and three-year camp.
The third evolutionary path was defined as ”The Media Phone,“ a device that receives and displays high-quality still and video images (news, sports clips, maps and directions, and more). Here too, respondents from the telecommunications industry were most optimistic, with the majority of them declaring the capability ”here today,“ while photo imaging respondents were evenly split between today, one year, and three years. Computer industry respondents were primarily in the one-year and three-year camp. Overall, 37% of attendees voted for ”here today,“ 33% voted for ”one year,“ and 30% voted for ”three years.“
Next was ”The Visual Analyzer,“ a camera-phone that interprets patterns within an image -- either in the device itself or by calling on a remote server. Examples include taking a picture of a bar code on a product and initiating a transaction to purchase it, or reading an iris or thumbprint and passing on the results to request a security clearance. The majority of attendees -- 65%, spread fairly evenly across all three industry sectors -- were clearly in the three-year camp. Twenty-five percent of respondents believed one year will be sufficient to attain this level of performance, while small minorities -- seven percent and three percent, respectively -- believed that it is here today, or that it will never happen.
The most varied range of opinions was expressed with respect to ”The Visual Phone,“ a device which sends and receives both voice and images -- videoconference, real-time transmission of images, or both -- such that language and visuals are both fully utilized to deliver the most effective person-to-person communication. The majority of respondents -- 56 percent -- believe this capability will be available within three years. Significant minorities of 13 percent and 17 percent, respectively, believe it is here today or will be within a year, and another significant minority of 14 percent believe the Visual Phone to be an unrealistic vision.”
[Marketwire]